There's not much that I could write that would make the conclusions documented by the New York Times Freakonomics blog regarding the inaccuracies of Kansas City Weather folk any less sweet . . . Unless I noted that at least there is a verifiable way to gauge the mistakes of Kansas City Meteorologists whereas this town's print reporters keep on insisting their right regardless of proof.
THE NY TIMES BLOG POST WHICH TAKES APART A MUCH CELEBRATED SEGMENT OF KANSAS CITY'S MEDIA ELITE IS A MUST READ!!!
However, for shits and giggles this Springtime (tornado season) I've pulled some of the best quotes.
The guest author, J.D. Eggleston - A local DeVry grad, genius and D.I.Y Freakonomics practitioner starts simply by taking local weather folk at their word:
The Kansas City television meteorologists will change their mind from 6.8 to nearly nine degrees in temperature and 30 percent to 57 percent in precipitation, showing a distinct lack of confidence in their initial predictions as time goes on.At this point the inaccuracies just get embarrassing as far as reporting in this town is concerned:
The prize for the single most inconsistent forecast goes to Channel 5’s Devon Lucie who on Sunday, September 30th predicted a high temperature of 53 degrees for October 7th, and seven days later changed it to 84 degrees — a difference of 31 degrees! It turned out to be 81 that day.For me this is the money quote that's applicable in so many other aspects of local media as well (print people too):
A close second was Channel 4’s Mike Thompson’s initial prediction of 83 for October 15th, which he changed to 53 just two days later. It turned out to be 64 on the 15th.
While none of Kansas City’s meteorologists are uneducated, stand-up comics, there does seem to be an unfortunate emphasis of style over substance.After reading all of this one thing should be clear:
When station managers were asked about this, one said, “There’s not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring meteorologists. Presentation takes precedence over accuracy.”
LOCAL TV STATIONS NEED TO STOP PROMOTING THEIR WEATHER PEOPLE AND INTERRUPTING PROGRAMMING BECAUSE IT'S CLEAR (A FACT) THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING!!!
Since Kansas City's failure has been documented by a media organization that serves as the paper of record for this nation . . . I think we can all agree that I'm right and it's time for change. The alternative means nothing less than ongoing panic on the airwaves over a few inches of rain and that's completely unacceptable.
Hat tip: KC Talk.
First
ReplyDeleteDark tonight, sunny tomorrow high 76, and here's the rest of the week in a graphic. That's all I need... just shutup already and get back to the "news".
ReplyDeleteMore likely the 'failure' of local meteorologists merely reflects the unpredictability of weather in this region. Hardly worth ranting about at any rate.
ReplyDeleteOf all the cities with horrible weather predictions I think it's strange that KC was picked first.
ReplyDeleteI am sure that Mike Thompson will say that this is the work of Nazi environmentalists.
ReplyDeleteThe local weather dudes' prediction accuracy record is no worse than Tony's. Give them a break.
ReplyDeleteWho gives a @#$%&*
ReplyDeleteNo global warming to see here. Please move along.
ReplyDeleteSo if the approaching weather changes, the forecasters aren't allowed to update their forecasts?
ReplyDeleteGranted, there are some bad ones on local TV (Mike Thompson), but most of them are pretty good, all things considered.
TONY NEEDS TO STOP BLOGGING BECAUSE IT'S CLEAR (A FACT) HE DOESN'T REALLY KNOW WHAT HE'S DOING!!!
Mike Thompson is the only meteorologist in town who's got a pair swinging to speak his mind.
ReplyDeleteDouble that on MT
ReplyDeleteThis has nothing to do with the weather, this is a study of climatology so the author of the hit piece (and Tony) don't know what they're talking about.
ReplyDeleteWATCH OUT FOR ANOTHER KATY HORNER WEATHERGASM!
ReplyDeleteOnce again Tony you've made a new class of enemy.
ReplyDeletesaw Katie "scare them" Horner report about a storm in "Arkansaw City" not "Arkansas City"..
ReplyDeleteLike I was going to be able to keep quiet about this Tony (I actually saw the article this morning) ...
ReplyDelete1. I'd love to see this done with other cities to see how things are "different or better." The actual numbers given are pretty good when you look at it. I would be interested how those compare to numbers nationwide. I'd bet KC forecasts are more accurate than most in the country. Moreover, a study about if forecasts have gotten more accurate in the last decade would be interesting.
2. Forecasts beyond 3 days are less accurate? Amazing! It's only predicting the future. A small difference only amplifies the further out you get in the forecast. Of course they are less accurate. Are the "blind stabs?" Absolutely not. I don't know about the other meteorologists in town, but if I'm uncertain about a forecast, I let my listeners know. There are many times I've said "I don't even know if I trust my own forecast past X day." I'd like to see more meteorologists do this (unfortunately, their lack of confidence would be seen as a weakness, subject to being fired).
3. Are TV people chosen/maintained because of their presentation? Absolutely! People are that vain, so the stations hire as such. But also think of the medium. If the world's best forecaster was on TV, but was a horrible communicator, would you watch them? Is that saying that TV meteorologists are then less accurate? Not at all. Yet to ignore that presentation isn't a contributing factor the hiring of a meteorologist is crazy. It's true for everything on television. Likewise, if you have an annoying voice, you won't get a job in radio either.
Ok. I'll stop. There are several good arguments in the comments section of the NYTimes article.
... you KNEW I couldn't stay quiet Tony! :)
- Ed
Kansas City Weather Podcast
Ok... also of note is that there ARE companies that specifically look at accuracy of forecasts. WeatheRate is one of them. They are an independent company that rates the forecasts of TV weather departments. The then attempt to sell this branding to the one station in each market that has the best forecasts. KSHB has been tops for 5+ years in a row now, and just got word they are way ahead for the first 6 weeks of the year. So yes, there are ratings folks out there.
ReplyDeleteOk, I'm done.
I totally think they are a huge joke! They interrupt programming at all times of the day...pre-empt programming and REPEAT, REPEAT, REPEAT!! If people don't catch it your first 100 times they can look it up on the internet! They report the weather so much because they refuse to report anything but weather, murders and other cities news.
ReplyDeleteExcuse me, when does Katie Horner get naked?
ReplyDeleteThank you Ed for providing some information rather than just Tony's stupid rants and dumb jokes.
ReplyDeleteNo stupid rants from what I have seen regarding this topic. The local weather people provide plenty of ammunition.
ReplyDeleteFor example, I distinctly remember Mike Thompson saying that winter would soon be over and we could look forward to spring very shortly. He said this during the first week of Jan. this year!!
Also according to this study Mike Thompson is least accurate Chief Meteorologist and his team is the worst in KC.
ReplyDelete